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Have you checked the forecast lately? You should! A storm can easily wash out your well-placed bet. It’s no secret that the weather significantly affects any sports game, especially NFL and NCAA games. Don’t sweat because, with some foresight, the weather doesn’t have to be your enemy—it can be your greatest ally.
Well, you know the rest, right? It’s not just water that affects the outcome of any NFL and NCAA game; factors like wind and temperature can also influence the odds. So, let’s break each of them down:
It’s a no-brainer, but gusts can completely throw off long passes and field goals. It’s the biggest detriment to betting totals that can make or break games, so watch for it in the forecast once it hits around 15mph or above. On the other hand, light winds cause the complete opposite, making long passes and field goals a breeze (pun intended).
As it rains, things get slippery. Heavy rain makes the passing game much harder by making the ball slick with water. Even a fresh ball won’t stay dry long under a torrent of rain. Quarterbacks and receivers eventually end up struggling with completing their passes and catches. Don’t forget, during downpours, the field can flood, which makes the kicking game more difficult, too.
Notably, though, rain presents an issue for a team on the defensive. Since the wide receivers know the routes, the defensive backs are placed far back, making moving the ball down the field much easier via passes.
Here’s a question: how would the Miami Dolphins fare playing at Lambeau Field during an early Wisconsin winter? Not fantastic, I imagine. That’s why the degrees on the thermometer matter. Depending on the matchup, the temperature can leave a team at a disadvantage or advantage. It’s not always an immediate factor but it can wear a team down.
Now, how does everything we’ve learned work in practice? Let’s say the oddsmakers place the over/under at 42.5 points. If the forecast calls for light winds, it’s wise to bet over. If there’s a prediction of heavy wind over 15mph, you can be confident to bet under.
Additionally, if rain comes through, as mentioned before, the offense gains the advantage of passing the ball down the field. That means more clock stoppages caused by incompletions. As a result? The total typically leans over. If it starts pouring heavily, though, the game quickly grinds to a halt. Now, the totals will lean way under.
Once it’s all laid out, it’s pretty simple. These are the insights you only get by doing your research, folks. So, I’ll ask you again: have you checked the forecast lately?
After over 37 years of handicapping experience, I have honed my skills, learning from my successes and mistakes. Utilizing a mix of technical analysis and a fundamental approach, I have developed an intuition for building a reliable betting roll. Now it’s time you also benefit from my insights by joining me on Uncle Phil’s Notebook, where I share the latest sports betting strategies, tricks, tips, and news! Let’s get started and roll together!
